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Research Interests

Three听big questions about human听behavior in the environment guide my current research and teaching:

• Forecast informed decision-making: Weather and climate forecasts at all scales (from minutes to decades) include uncertainty, but can better decision tools听increase their value at current skill levels? I develop quantitative decision models linking probabilistic forecasts to specific weather and climate sensitive decisions.

• Climate Adaptation Science: How and when should managers of climate-sensitive resources change what they're doing in the face of climate change? How do we analyze and model this process in a risk and decision framework?

• Extremes and Risk: What differentiates extreme听events from routine, and can we improve our handling of low probability/high consequence risks? Why do disasters occur even when and where we invest significant efforts to make systems and settlements safe?

This research is conducted with support of grants from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to CU's Western Water Assessment; the National Science Foundation (NSF) program on Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems, the USGS National Climate Adaptation Science Centers, the National Drought Mitigation Center, and CU's Grand Challenge/Earth Lab in the Cooperative Institute for Research on Environmental Science (CIRES).

Selected Publications

(Working Paper) Palasti, L.A.* and W.R. Travis听鈥淔orecast Informed Decision Making: The Case of Drought Response on the Ranch"听

(In Review) Iglesias, V., M.W. Rossi, and W.R. Travis. 鈥淢easuring the Strength of Coupling between Climate and Natural Resource Production: Dose-Response Functions for Crop Yields.鈥� Global Environmental Change.

Cravens, A., K. Clifford, Katherine; C. Knapp, Corinne; W.R. Travis听(2024) "The dynamic feasibility of resisting (R), accepting (A) or directing (D) ecological change" Conservation Biology.听

Miller, Brian W., Mitchell J. Eaton, Amy J. Symstad, Gregor W. Schuurman, Imtiaz Rangwala, and W. R. Travis. 2023. 鈥淪cenario-Based Decision Analysis: Integrated Scenario Planning and Structured Decision Making for Resource Management under Climate Change.鈥� Biological Conservation 286: 110275. .

Dilling, L., M. Daly, W. R. Travis, A. Ray, O. Wilhelmi (2023) 鈥淭he role of adaptive capacity in incremental and transformative adaptation in three large U.S. urban water systems.鈥� Global Environmental Change 79: 102649.听

Iglesias, V., W.R. Travis, and J.K. Balch (2022) 鈥淩ecent droughts in the United States are among the fastest-developing of the last century.鈥� Weather and Climate Extremes.

Shrum, T. and W.R. Travis听(2022) 鈥淓xperiments in ranching: Rain-index insurance and investment in production and drought risk management.鈥� Applied Economics Perspectives & Policy.听

Iglesias, V., Balch, J. K., and Travis, W. R. (2022). 鈥淯.S. fires became larger, more frequent, and more widespread in the 2000s.鈥� Science Advances 8 (11).

Rangwala, I.; Moss, W.; Wolken, J.; Rondeau, R.; Newlon, K.; Guinotte, J.; Travis, W.R. (2021) 鈥淯ncertainty, Complexity and Constraints: How Do We Robustly Assess Biological Responses under a Rapidly Changing Climate?鈥� Climate 9, 177.

Travis, W.R. (2021) 鈥淚mpacts and adaptation at the climate risk frontier.鈥� Chapter 11 in C. Rosenzweig, M. Parry and M. De Mel, eds., Our Warming Planet: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, pp. 276-293. Singapore: World Scientific.

Iglesias, Virginia, Anna E. Braswell, Maxwell B. Joseph, Caitlin McShane, Matthew W. Rossi, Megan Cattau, Michael J. Koontz, Joe McGlinchy, R. Chelsea Nagy, Jennifer Balch, Stefan Leyk, and W.R. Travis (2021): 鈥淩isky development: increasing exposure to natural hazards in the United States.鈥� Earth鈥檚 Future.听听

Clifford, K and W.R. Travis (2021): "The New (ab)Normal: Outliers, everyday exceptionality and the politics of data management in the Anthropocene." Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 111:3, 932-943, DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2020.1785836

Clifford, K., L. Yung, W.R. Travis, R. Rondeau, I. Rangwala, C. Wyborn, N. Burkhardt, and E. Neeley (2020): "Navigating climate adaptation on public lands: how views on ecosystem change and scale interact with management approaches.鈥� Environmental Management 66: 614鈥�628 (2020).

Balch, J. K., Iglesias, V., Braswell, A. E., Rossi, M. W., Joseph, M. B., Mahood, A. L., Mahood, A.L., Shrum, T., White, C., Scholl, V., McGuire, B., Karban, C., Buckland, M. & Travis, W.R. (2020). Social鈥恊nvironmental extremes: Rethinking extraordinary events as outcomes of interacting听biophysical and social systems. Earth's Future 8: e2019EF001319. DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001319

Clifford, K., W.R. Travis, and L.T. Nordgren (2020): 鈥淎 climate knowledges approach to climate services.鈥� Climate Services. 10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100155

Williams, T.M. and W.R. Travis (2019): 鈥淓valuating alternative drought indicators in a weather index insurance instrument.鈥� Weather, Climate and Society 11: 629-649. DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0107.1

Dilling, L., M. Daly, D. Kenney, R. Klein, K. Miller, A. Ray, W.R. Travis, O. Wilhelmi (2019): 鈥淒rought in urban water systems: Learning lessons for climate adaptive capacity.鈥� Climate Risk Management 23: 32-42. DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2018.11.001

Shrum, T., W.R. Travis, T. Williams, and E. Lih (2018): 鈥淢anaging climate risks on the ranch with limited drought information.鈥� Climate Risk Management 20: 11-26. DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2018.01.002

Blogs:

High-Impact Weather and Climate Events in baby直播app, Wyoming, and Utah, 1862鈥�2022鈥澨�

Data base developed by: J. Lukas, A. McCurdy, K. Wolter, and W. Travis. Up-dated in 2022 by E. Knight, L. Woelders, and L. Peyton.听

The Work of Robert W. Kates

I maintain a website celebrating and archiving the听scholarship of geographer Robert W. Kates. It offers a perspective on the evolution of environment and society theory and research听via one scholar's lifetime effort on hazards, climate change, population &听resources, and sustainability:

see also:听Travis, W.R. (2018) 鈥淩obert W. Kates (1929鈥�2018): Grappled with problems of the human environment.鈥澨�Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (31) 7844-7845; DOI: 听

Recent Courses Taught

• Fall 2024听 GEOG 3412听 Conservation Practice and Resource Management
• Fall 2024听 GEOG 4501/5501听 Water Issues in the American West
• Spring 2024听 GEOG听1962听 Geographies of Global Change
• Spring 2024听 GEOG听3402听 Natural Hazards
• Fall 2023听 GEOG 4501/5501听 Water Resources and Water Management of Western US
• Spring 2023听 GEOG听1962听 Geographies of Global Change
• Spring 2023听 GEOG听3402听 Natural Hazards
• Fall 2022 GEOG 3412听 Conservation Practice and Resource Management
• Spring 2022听 GEOG 3402听 Natural Hazards
• Spring 2022听 GEOG 4501/5501听 Water Resources and Water Management of Western US
• Spring 2021听 GEOG 3402听 Natural Hazards
• Spring 2021听 GEOG 4501/5501听 Water Resources and Water Management of Western US
• Fall 2020听听GEOG 3402听 Natural Hazards
• Spring 2020听听GEOG听1962听 Geographies of Global Change
• Fall 2019听听GEOG听3402听 Natural Hazards
• Spring听2019听听GEOG听5161听 Research Design