Presentation

Mid-Century Alaskan hydrology in transition: how changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns are projected to reshape seasonal streamflow

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 18:00:40 +0000

Mid-Century Alaskan hydrology in transition: how changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns are projected to reshape seasonal streamflow Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 04/09/2024 - 12:00 Dylan Blaskey , Keith Musselman

Climate change is profoundly reshaping Arctic hydrology, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of evolving hydrological conditions for effective planning and resilience strategies. However, the majority of regional or global river models lack the necessary resolution to accurately project local conditions. In this study, we employ a series of high-resolution models to forecast river discharge trends by mid-century. Leveraging the mizuRoute river routing model, forced by output from a 4km resolution regional climate model, we compare results between historical (1990-2021) and mid-century (2034-2065) time frames across six future scenarios. These scenarios encompass two pseudo-global warming and four dynamically downscaled large ensemble models, under a "middle of the road" emission scenario. Our findings indicate a projected 6% increase in annual flow to the ocean, with the most significant increases anticipated during April and October. Notably, one-third of spring gauges exhibit escalating discharge across future scenarios, while half of all gauges show increased discharge in the fall. This increase is attributed to amplified rainfall including changing weather patterns and a transition from snow to rain in the spring and fall, coupled with heightened snowmelt. Rising evapotranspiration moderates the magnitude of discharge changes cause by changes in precipitation. Furthermore, the centroid of discharge is shifting earlier in the year at two-thirds of all gauges, despite peak discharge occurring later. Increasing discharge in fall, winter, and spring underscores the extensive alteration of hydrological fluxes in the Arctic.

Dylan Blaskey · CEAE · PhD Student

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Climate change impacts and its effect on cold weather storm water management

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 18:00:20 +0000

Climate change impacts and its effect on cold weather storm water management Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 04/09/2024 - 12:00 Maryam Buhamad

Climate change impacts have been causing noticeable changes in weather patterns which lead to a need to adapt wet weather management. Two components of this research were conducted: a climatology analysis and a literature review. The climatology data for each city was obtained from NOAA and processed using R Studio. Through this ongoing research it was found that daily weather patterns, specifically snowfall have changed from 1950-2021 resulting in a positive trend for the Mann Kendall Test. These cities were chosen based on population density and those that experience snowfall in the winter time. Based on those criteria, 19 cities were chosen throughout the contiguous United States. . From the literature review, it was found that increasing snowfall and cold climate storms has led to a need to adapt wet weather management and excess runoff. Increased road salt due to road deicing has led to higher lake salinity urging the need for alternative methods. Through the literature review, some BMPs have worked more efficiently than others in colder climates. This research revealed that many cities are facing colder weather due to climate change impacts, prompting the necessity to adapt wet weather management strategies to accommodate these changes. Future work will focus on developing a comprehensive guidance document tailored to stormwater utilities, offering insights into the most effective approaches for wet weather management in colder climates.

Maryam Buhamad · CEAE · MS Student

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Evaluating the Relationship between Streamflow and Hyporheic Active Layer Dynamics in Two McMurdo Dry Valley Streams

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 17:59:52 +0000

Evaluating the Relationship between Streamflow and Hyporheic Active Layer Dynamics in Two McMurdo Dry Valley Streams Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 04/09/2024 - 11:59 Jared Collins

The (MDVs) are an ice-free area of Antarctica characterized by a permafrost landscape with glacial meltwater streams that flow for 6-12 weeks during the austral summer. In the hyporheic zones beneath stream channels, the active layer can be extensive, ranging from a few centimeters from the surface to over half a meter in depth. The thaw and refreeze of the active layer under and adjacent to stream channels have important implications on hyporheic exchange and associated ecological and chemical properties of the stream ecosystems. This study aims to characterize the relationship between streamflow and hyporheic active layer dynamics by comparing long-term records of streamflow with soil sensor measurements (temperature, moisture, and salinity) in two streams in the MDVs. In addition to these records, field measurements of permafrost depth and channel morphology were collected to add context to sensor data. Here we analyze the controls on depth and duration of thaw in the hyporheic zones by comparing relationships among meteorological variables, streamflow, and subsurface conditions between hyporheic and dry subsurface locations. Preliminary results suggest that meltwater plays an important role in promoting and maintaining thaw. Further, the timing of active layer thaw and refreeze are at least partly correlated with the beginning and end of flow, respectively. These results point to the importance of liquid water in facilitating subsurface ecological processes in the MDVs and beyond, a major consideration for an increasingly warmer Antarctic climate.

Jared Collins · CEAE · PhD Student

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Exploring Spatiotemporal Urban Flood Drivers Using Multisource Data Integration

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 17:59:28 +0000

Exploring Spatiotemporal Urban Flood Drivers Using Multisource Data Integration Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 04/09/2024 - 11:59 Stacie DeSousa

·Urban flooding is an increasing threat to city and resident well-being. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) typically reports losses attributed to flooding that results from a stream overtopping its banks, discounting impacts of flooding that occurs when precipitation intensity exceeds the capacity of a drainage system. This study uses municipal service requests reporting on street flooding in Denver, babyֱ��app from 2000-2019 in coordination with Mile High Flood District rain gauge data and Census tract information to understand spatiotemporal drivers of urban flooding. A threshold analysis was conducted on storm characteristics with performance of best thresholds being close to random chance, indicating single storm characteristics were not able to effectively predict where and when flooding reports occurred, leading us to a combined spatial and temporal analysis. Topographic Wetness Index of locations of flooding reports were found higher than randomly selected points. A logistic regression describing the probability of a storm leading to a flood report showed the strongest predictors of urban flooding were, in descending order, maximum five-minute intensity, population density, storm depth, storm duration, median tract income, and stormwater pipe length per area. Maximum five-minute intensity and population density are nearly identical in prediction power for urban flood reports. The logistic regression revealed information about the comparative influence of spatial and temporal variables on flood reporting. A linear regression describing amounts of reports per area showed percent impervious as the only predictor. Our methodologies can be used to better inform urban flood awareness, response, and mitigation.

Stacie DeSousa · CEAE · MS Student

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Circulation in Beaufort Sea lagoons with varying river and shelf influence: a numerical modeling study

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 17:59:00 +0000

Circulation in Beaufort Sea lagoons with varying river and shelf influence: a numerical modeling study Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 04/09/2024 - 11:59 Tina Geller

Lagoons along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast are seasonally productive during ice-free months (i.e., the open water season) and support diverse food webs that include or sustain fish, migratory birds, polar bears, and whales. Nutrients are the base of these food webs, and their transport at the coast is modulated by highly variable lagoon circulation and inlet fluxes. To characterize open-water circulation in Beaufort Sea lagoons, a numerical model was implemented for a connected system of five lagoons that vary in river input and shelf connectivity. Specifically, the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was implemented for July to October of 2019 for Arey, Kaktovik, Jago, Tapkaurak, and Oruktalik Lagoons. The model accounts for winds, rivers, shelf circulation, and tides. Preliminary results show that transport within the lagoons and lagoon-shelf fluxes vary in magnitude and direction, corresponding to shifts in winds and shelf currents. Additionally, from early to late summer, as river discharge decreases, the delay between freshwater entry and exit increases. The response of circulation to different forcings varies among the lagoons, however. Kaktovik Lagoon, with no direct shelf connection, has the smallest inlet fluxes and is shielded from large swings in salinity and temperature with river discharge. Jago, Tapkaurak, and Oruktalik Lagons, located on the east side of the chain, have no physical barriers separating them, and therefore function as one lagoon that becomes fresher and warmer with river discharge but is quickly flushed with shelf water during a strong wind or current event. Arey Lagoon, on the west side of the chain, has the largest river influence and the largest inlet fluxes. These preliminary results suggest that nutrients will remain longer in more protected Beaufort Sea lagoons and will be exported to the shelf in greater amounts during time periods with high wind and strong offshore currents.

Tina Geller · ATOC · PhD Student

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Groundwater Depletion in Santa Clara Valley Over the Most Recent Drought in California inferred from Sentinel-1 InSAR Deformation

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 17:56:00 +0000

Groundwater Depletion in Santa Clara Valley Over the Most Recent Drought in California inferred from Sentinel-1 InSAR Deformation Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 04/09/2024 - 11:56 Khosro Ghobadi-Far , Susanna Werth , Manoochehr Shirzaei , Roland Bürgmann

Groundwater resources play a crucial role in the Santa Clara Valley (SCV) where almost half of the water used is pumped from aquifers. This reliance on groundwater is expected to increase in the future with climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts, and thus, reducing the surface water resources. As such, any tool that helps to better manage the groundwater resources in the SCV can be extremely beneficial. In this presentation, we demonstrate InSAR as a viable tool which can help with better management of groundwater extraction, storage, and recharge assessing the success of managed aquifer recharge. We first demonstrate that groundwater dynamics in deep aquifer layers below 120 m mainly drive vertical deformation in the SCV. We then build on this strong correlation to calibrate the aquifer’s mechanical properties using InSAR data. The calibrated aquifer mechanical properties, along with the InSAR data, can then be used to quantify the impact of droughts on groundwater depletion in the SCV at a high spatial and temporal resolution (i.e., 100 m and weekly). We also examine the impact of the most recent California droughts on groundwater depletion and subsidence in the SCV. We show that, from 2019 to 2021, Santa Clara County subsided up to 30 mm, and groundwater levels dropped by as much as 18 m. We show that the subsidence caused by groundwater depletion during the drought remained elastic (recoverable) thanks to the managed aquifer recharge by the SCV Water District. Our results demonstrate how InSAR data can provide helpful information for the operational management of groundwater resources and ensure recoverable land subsidence, particularly during severe drought.

Khosro Ghobadi-Far · ASEN · CIRES Faculty

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Urban Water Dynamics: Outdoor Consumption Patterns in the babyֱ��app River Basin

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 17:55:33 +0000

Urban Water Dynamics: Outdoor Consumption Patterns in the babyֱ��app River Basin Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 04/09/2024 - 11:55 Nicholas Guthro , Aditi Bhaskar

Water from the babyֱ��app River Basin is a major water source for residents of the American Southwest, serving nearly 40 million people. In these urban areas, residential usage is one of the major uses of water, with outdoor water usage regularly representing over fifty percent of each household’s total usage. Outdoor usage is often identified as a target for reduction, as many cities using basin water are facing growing water scarcity concerns. This study compiled the water use of over thirty urban areas using babyֱ��app River Basin water and separated the indoor and outdoor water usage using a combination of the minimum method and smart metering data. Results show a large variability in outdoor water usage per capita between cities with different population sizes and locations. Still, there has been an overall downward trend of outdoor water usage in most large urban areas over the past decade. The outdoor water usage total was then examined for trends with explanatory variables (population, climate, water rates). Initial results showed correlations between higher outdoor usage with higher temperatures and lower precipitation. Our future work will include examining the effectiveness of water conservation policies in the river basin and modeling the effect of past changes in policy, climate, population, and water rates. This work can help quantify the amount of outdoor water usage for municipalities within the babyֱ��app River Basin Service area the effects of various water use reduction efforts such as watering restrictions and turfgrass replacement programs.

Nicholas Guthro · CEAE · PhD Student

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Investigating Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions using High Frequency Measurements

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 17:54:58 +0000

Investigating Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions using High Frequency Measurements Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 04/09/2024 - 11:54 Jason Hanania , Michael Gooseff

Understanding groundwater-surface water interactions is critical for decision-making of water quantity and quality. These interactions, however, can be highly heterogeneous in space and time. While many mountainous streams are inferred to be gaining from groundwater, streambank storage during the snowmelt period can occur, begging the question, how important is it for late season water supply? The recent use of “Super Gages” or a surface water gage paired with one or several streambank wells has opened a new lens into groundwater-surface water interactions. In this analysis, we explore surface and groundwater gradients from two super gage sites in the Upper Green River Basin, Wyoming. The two sites show contrasting bank storage dynamics throughout WY2016. Both the direction and magnitude of the gradient differed between sites. We expect that streambank lithology and snowmelt dynamics are controls on the degree of bank storage between sites. This research shows the utility of collecting and analyzing high-frequency surface water and groundwater measurements together in hydrologic studies.

Jason Hanania · CEAE · MS Student

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Can water resources systems analysis provide generalized knowledge to help society?

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 17:54:32 +0000

Can water resources systems analysis provide generalized knowledge to help society? Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 04/09/2024 - 11:54 Joseph Kasprzyk

Water resources systems analysis (WRSA) combines quantitative and qualitative methods informed by multiple scientific disciplines, serving many broad water-related societal goals such as providing safe drinking water and mitigating floods and other disasters. Water utilities, flood control districts, and government agencies have regulatory mandates to meet these objectives. However, these entities face growing challenges including trade-offs between human and ecological needs, climate change, increasing population, aging infrastructure, and pressures from interconnected sectors such as food and energy. The aim of WRSA research, then, is to contribute new general methodologies for addressing these challenges and specific solutions for pressing problems. However, it is not always clear that knowledge developed in the WRSA field is generalizable (across case studies and regulatory contexts) and actionable (both in real-world systems and across academic fields). This presentation argues the need for systematic guiding questions for WRSA research. Such questions should address the relative importance of normative and positive analysis, the proper formulation of optimization problems, and the fidelity of mathematical representations of water resources systems. After exploring these ideas, we suggest pillars of guiding research questions for the field to support the aim of increasing generalizable and actionable knowledge within WRSA and improved water system sustainability.

Joseph Kasprzyk · CEAE · HydroSciences Faculty

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Stream temperature trends in US National Parks

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 17:53:56 +0000

Stream temperature trends in US National Parks Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 04/09/2024 - 11:53 Theo Kuhn , Holly Barnard , Andrew Birch

Climate change is altering temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States, shifting water temperatures in streams and rivers across the National Park Service (NPS) system. Water temperature is a biological “master variable” that affects almost all ecosystem functions, carrying widespread implications for aquatic ecosystems that may be increasingly pressured in a warmer, less snowy, and potentially drier future. Many NPS stream temperature records are only now becoming sufficiently long to identify long term temporal trends. Here, we analyze stream temperature trends at 46 NPS sites in the mountain West and Appalachian Mountains. Warming was most pronounced in the summer, fall and early winter months (July – December). Cooling trends were mostly found in February, May and June. Significant trends in July, August and September (n = 9) ranged from 0.47 – 3.16 °C / decade.

Theo Kuhn • GEOG • MA student

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