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Title image:听Damage from Hurricane Ike in Bolivar Peninsula, Texas in 2008. (Credit:听)

Just two weeks after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida and听听in its path, the southern state is bracing for another intense hurricane.

Meteorologists estimate that听, a storm as powerful as Hurricane Helene, may hit Florida鈥檚 heavily populated west coast areas, including Tampa, late Wednesday. State officials have ordered more than a million people to evacuate, and on some major highways cars are听.

鈥淚f you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you鈥檙e going to die,鈥� 听惭辞苍诲补测.

But not everyone is willing to leave their homes behind, and not everyone has the resources to evacuate, said听, a research associate at the at CU Boulder. She has been exploring what motivates people to evacuate or stay behind in disasters such as hurricanes and tornadoes.听

鈥淭here are many factors that influence people鈥檚 decisions,鈥� said MacPherson-Krutsky. 鈥淓vacuating is a privilege, and a lot of people don鈥檛 have that privilege.鈥澨�

CU Boulder Today sat down with MacPherson-Krutsky to talk about what drives people鈥檚 evacuation decisions, the challenges of communicating risk, and what people facing increasingly frequent and intense natural disasters can do.

What motivates people to either shelter in place or evacuate during events like hurricanes or tornadoes?

In partnership with Federal Emergency Management Agency, I am conducting a literature review, including 105 peer-reviewed articles and 13 agency reports, to understand why people don鈥檛 go to storm shelters during disasters. I found that many people lack information about shelters. They are unaware of where the shelters are, whether they have room or unclear if they can bring pets.听

We also found that people underestimate the risk despite warnings or have experienced events in the past that weren't as bad as people had warned, and so they think they're going to be safe at home. Research has shown that women are twice as likely to evacuate when given a directive compared to men. Women tend to have higher risk perceptions, so they're more likely to take action to try to reduce that risk.听

Another challenge that鈥檚 really relevant to Hurricane Helene is that many people lack transportation resources, time or social support to evacuate.听

Did any of the findings stand out for you?

The lack of planning for different types of populations, such as people with pets, disabilities听or transportation issues, was particularly sobering. Authorities and agencies often fail to plan specifically for people with access and functional needs, creating barriers for many people to access storm shelters or evacuate.

One example from the literature involved a person in a wheelchair who contacted authorities for evacuation assistance. But the authorities didn鈥檛 have the right transportation for the wheelchair, so they had to evacuate the person without it. This person ended up bedbound for the next week in the shelter. It was just a really terrible experience.听

You also found that many people have negative perceptions about shelters. What are they?听

There鈥檚 a lot of uncertainty about what people can expect in shelters. Many shelters are open spaces, which makes people uncomfortable around strangers. This can also make it hard to rest and people sometimes have fears about personal safety.

Religious minorities had concerns about safety, cleanliness, privacy for religious practice, and finding appropriate food options. Nursing mothers and people with children have reservations about whether there will be accommodations for them.听

Some people may stay at hotels, but not everyone can afford that.

What can be done to help people make better decisions during future disasters?

Better risk communication is crucial. In flooding events, for example, we often use terminology like 鈥渙nce in a 100-year flood,鈥澨齛nd people can't connect what that really means on the ground. We can put 鈥渉igh water mark鈥� lines around the community, for example, to help people understand how high the water can flow. Because of climate change, we're experiencing disasters that are more severe than we鈥檝e ever seen. How we communicate the risk also has to be different.听

Emergency managers and local authorities also need to plan ahead. How are you going to evacuate people with disabilities or pets? Do they have bussing plans in place to help people without vehicles? Where will these people stay for short or longer-term? Having those plans outlined clearly in advance will then make it possible for people to evacuate more readily.听

Do you have any tips for people trying to decide whether to stay or leave?听

Pay attention to what your local authorities are suggesting. They are the ones that have the most up-to-date information. And if they're suggesting evacuation, consider those options if possible. Do research in advance to know where you can go if there鈥檚 a storm.听

Even if you live in an area that doesn鈥檛 get many hurricanes, you can face the impacts of disasters like power outages anytime. So it鈥檚 good to have resources available and ready if you are able.听

Having those conversations before it gets to an emergency can save lives.听